Probability of Attack: 3
One of FBI’s top priorities is counterterrorism since the threat has changed in various ways (Davis, Martini & Cragin, 2017). The core al Qaeda threat has been reduced, but its operations have been evolving. The focus has now shifted to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Tallis, Bauer & Frey, 2017). Syria and Iraq conflicts have been very attractive to Western-based extremists desiring to engage in violence in which many Americans have traveled to Syria (Rollins & Peters, 2015). The individuals living in the United States may be inspired to commit acts of violence since they are willing to travel abroad to fight and act in their communities, which pose a potential threat to the safety and security of the United States and persons (Applegate, 2016). ISIL is relentless in its violent campaign and has propagated hateful messages that attracted like-minded extremists. ISIL has been persistent in using the Internet and social media for communication and the widespread reach out is a concern as ISIL has used technology aggressively to pass its violent message. The messages of radicalization tend to spread faster than one would imagine that and the narrative created a focus on all aspects of life such as career opportunities, family life, and a sense of community. The potential of threat by ISIL is real and is becoming bigger with time (Siniver & Lucas, 2016). It is a multi-faceted threat since ISIL views America as a strategic enemy.
Severity of Attack: 2
If ISIL were to attack U.S, the severity of the attack would not be as high as the imminent threat it has. The strategy used by ISIL of using social media and going public about its activities and line of thought is a wakeup call to the U.S (Comey, 2014). The country would not be caught unawares like the September 11 attack by al Qaeda.
References
Applegate, T. R. (2016). Reassessing the Threat of Homegrown Violent Extremism in the United States: Overstated or Underestimated?. Journal Article| October, 1(8), 55am.
Comey J.B. (2014) Worldwide Threats to the Homeland: Statement before the House of Homeland Security Committee, Davis, L. E., Martini, J., & Cragin, K. (2017). A Strategy to Counter ISIL as a Transregional Threat. RAND Corporation.
Rollins, J. W., & Peters, H. M. (2015). The Islamic State, Frequently Asked Questions: Threats, Global Implications, and US Policy Responses. Congressional Research Service
Siniver, A., & Lucas, S. (2016). The Islamic State lexical battleground: US foreign policy and the abstraction of threat. International Affairs, 92(1), 63-79.
Tallis, J., Bauer, R., & Frey, L. (2017). ISIL’S Battlefield Tactics and the Implications for Homeland Security and Preparedness. Journal of Terrorism Research, 8(3)
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